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Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Picks & Odds for October 25 — College Football Week 9
Oct
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Missouri Tigers in a pivotal Week 9 SEC matchup that could shake up the playoff race.
Both teams enter with just one loss, and both still hold slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff. It’s a rare moment of national attention for Vanderbilt, especially with College GameDay in town.
Here’s how I see this one playing out in my Missouri vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Prediction: Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
There’s plenty to unpack in this matchup. Vanderbilt has the home-field energy and a balanced offense led by quarterback Diego Pavia, while Missouri looks to capture its first top-10 road win since its upset over Georgia years ago.
For all the noise surrounding this game, the data points to one clear outcome — points. Both offenses can score, and both defenses have weaknesses that the other can exploit.
Vanderbilt ranks 4th nationally in EPA per rush, thanks largely to Pavia’s mobility. However, Missouri has contained mobile quarterbacks fairly well this season. Even so, its run defense overall hasn’t been great, sitting 70th in EPA allowed per rush. That opens the door for Vanderbilt’s running backs to move the chains consistently.
On the flip side, Vanderbilt’s pass defense remains a major liability. It ranks in the bottom 10% nationally in explosiveness allowed, giving up chunk plays through the air. Missouri’s high-tempo offense thrives on those opportunities. Expect the Tigers to hit on several big plays and put up points in bunches.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Same-Game Parlay
Following the same logic as my best bet, I expect Missouri to win outright and cover the total. The Tigers are the more complete team, and even the GameDay hype shouldn’t throw them off.
To build a value parlay:
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt SGP
- Over 52.5
- Missouri moneyline
- Diego Pavia under 58.5 rushing yards
Missouri’s defensive front creates enough sack pressure to limit Pavia’s rushing total, even if he breaks a few scrambles.
Deep-Ball SGP: “Coleman Keeps It Explosive”
To expand the parlay, consider wide receiver Kevin Coleman. He’s Missouri’s most explosive pass-catcher, averaging an impressive 28.4 EPA per target this season. Given Vanderbilt’s struggles in pass coverage, Coleman could go over 55.5 receiving yards with just one big catch.
Additionally, Sedrick Alexander is a strong play on the ground. Vanderbilt’s tailback should find space against Missouri’s average run defense, making the over 40.5 rushing yards appealing.
Extended Parlay:
- Over 52.5
- Missouri moneyline
- Diego Pavia under 58.5 rushing yards
- Kevin Coleman over 55.5 receiving yards
- Sedrick Alexander over 40.5 rushing yards
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri +2.5 (-105) / Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | Missouri +116 / Vanderbilt -136 |
| Over/Under | Over 52.5 (-105) / Under 52.5 (-115) |
Key Trend to Know
Missouri has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games (+5.70 units / 40% ROI).
Game Information
- Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Injuries & Weather
Check for updates on injuries and game-time weather conditions closer to kickoff, as both could impact the line.
Final Thoughts
Missouri’s offensive balance and Vanderbilt’s defensive flaws point toward a high-scoring affair. Expect plenty of fireworks — and the Tigers to leave Nashville with a win.
Pick: Over 52.5 and Missouri Moneyline
Copy Right By Hornnastee
